2020 Foresight
Headmaster’s Routh Assembly Address
Monday 9th March 2020
Excerpt from Six Things You Should Know About the Future
The future isn’t what we thought it would be. We don’t walk around in silver suits, travel to colonies on Mars or drive in flying cars. Instead, we dress casually, take selfies and communicate in 140 characters.
Yet in many ways, we’re much better off than we imagined. Rather than a Mad Max dystopia of war, famine and disease, we are safer, richer and healthier than we’ve ever been. In a very real sense, 140 characters are better than a flying car.
That’s the funny thing about the future. It’s never as fantastic as we hope nor as horrible as we fear. The one thing that’s for sure is that times will change, and we will have to adapt. While there is no way of knowing exactly how that change will play out, we can identify trends, make common sense judgments about where they lead and prepare for them.
Good morning
There are plenty of people in the world who wish that they could predict the future. Me, for one. If I could foresee exactly how the threat of the COVID virus will play out, it would be a lot easier to prepare. As it is, all I can work on is possibility versus probability. Covering the likely eventualities.
It has always been a tantalising human dream, to be able to predict future events. I’m not talking about knowing next week’s lottery numbers. That is just lucky guessing. I’m talking about using our logic and insight to correctly foresee major events or changes that are not obvious to others. Being shrewd and insightful, thanks to your intelligence. Successful people are often those who have cleverly picked what was going to happen next.
Of course, there are also many more who have got it spectacularly wrong in the past.
In 1911 Phillip Franklin, vice president of the White Star Line famously said "There is no danger it will sink. That boat is unsinkable.” He was, of course, speaking of the Titanic.
Then there was Henry Morton, President of the Institute of Technology in 1880, who said “Everyone acquainted with the subject will recognise it as a conspicuous failure”. He was talking about a crazy new-fangled invention by Thomas Edison, called the lightbulb.
The same sentiment was echoed by the Chairman of the Michigan Bank, who advised Henry Ford’s lawyer not to invest in his client’s new business, saying “The horse is here to stay. The automobile is only a novelty, a fad”.
Then there was the great British scientist, Lord Kelvin, who went for a three-way bet at the start of the 20th Century, proclaiming “Radio has no future. Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible. X-rays will prove to be a hoax.”
It is not just scientists who get it wrong. In 1946, the great movie producer for 20th Century Fox, Darryl Zanuck said “Television won’t last because people will soon get tired of staring at a box in their living room every night.”
In 1962, a band who auditioned for Decca Records were were rejected by the CEO, who told their manager that they had no future in showbusiness. "Groups are out; four-piece groups with guitars, particularly, are finished." he said. The band? The Beatles.
Then of course, there came the digital age. In 1943, the Chairman of IBM, Thomas Watson, said “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.” Ken Olsen, President of the Digital Equipment Corporation, was still getting it wrong 35 years later, saying “There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home.”
Even as recently as 2007, just before the launch of the first iPhone, the CEO of Microsoft, Steve Ballmer, said, "There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance."
Not all poor predictions are bad of course. In 1974, the person who said “It will be years — not in my time — before a woman will become Prime Minister.” was a lady called Margaret Thatcher.
Nor is everyone who makes a bad prediction a fool. None other than Albert Einstein himself once said “There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever be obtainable. It would mean that the atom would have to be shattered at will.”
Perhaps the worst prediction of all, given how wide-sweeping it was, came from a man who should have known better. Charles Duell, Commissioner of the U.S. Office of Patents, allegedly once said “Everything that can be invented has been invented.”
So how can you get better at knowing what to expect? It may depend upon whether you are more like a hedgehog or a fox. The great philosopher, Isaiah Berlin, wrote an essay in which he suggested that a person’s ability to predict the future was influenced by whether they were a fox or a hedgehog by nature. He was referring to an idea in an ancient Greek poem that concluded “The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.”
Berlin proposed that some people have one big, overarching way of looking at the world. Like a hedgehog, curled up in a ball hibernating for the winter, they can focus exclusively on one task, one strategy, and have complete confidence in doing so. Whereas others have no single philosophy that they abide by. Instead, they flit from one idea to the next, constantly curious and alert to changes and new circumstances, like the fox.
That idea was tested by a researcher in a study of 284 experts who made 28,000 predictions about long term events. What he found was that there was no difference in accuracy at all between men and woman, optimists and pessimists, conservatives or liberals. The only notable difference in how right people were in predicting the future was whether they were a hedgehog or a fox. And the finding was, foxes were much more accurate. Hedgehog people, with their fixed world view and single central theory were worse at predicting what was going to happen than fox-like people, who happily swapped theories at will. In fact, hedgehogs actually turned out to be worst in making predictions in the very field in which they were an expert.
So better to be a fox than a hedgehog then, if you want to see into the future. But how to you become one? In his book “Future Babble”, author Dan Gardner suggests three characteristics of good future forecasters.
The first is aggregation, your ability to use multiple sources, be open to new information and to work with others in teams. The second is metacognition. Meaning understanding your own brain, knowing your personal bias’s and having an insight into how you think. And the third was humility. A willingness to acknowledge when you are uncertain. To admit your errors and to change your mind. Do those three things and you will improve your ability to see what is coming down the track.
And if those habits sound familiar, aggregating ideas, understanding how your own mind works and acting with humility, that’s hopefully because that is the way we try to teach you to think and act every day. So that hopefully you will become someone capable of predicting how events will unfold in the future. In the words of Shakespeare, "If you can look into the seeds of time and say which grain will grow and which will not, speak then unto me. "
Presentations
Independent Schools Netball Final
We begin with more superb news from our 1st Netball team, following on from their outstanding successes last year. On Friday they were once again crowned National Independent School’s Cup champions. In a thrilling final, Bromsgrove faced Alleyn's School, who had defeated Millfield in the semi-final. Both teams started well and after the first quarter Bromsgrove were leading 17-12. With great encouragement from the vocal Bromsgrove supporters the team capitalised on their lead and went from strength to strength. Bromsgrove achieved a 64-47 victory enabling them to retain the trophy from last year and to be crowned National Champions once again. Kitty Luscombe was awarded the prestigious player of the competition award.
House Cross Country
Junior Boys: 1st Wendron Gordon; 2nd Walters; 3rd Elmshurst
Junior Girls: 1st Thomas Cookes; 2nd Oakley; 3rd Hazeldene
Senior Boys: 1st Wendron Gordon; 2nd Elmshurst; 3rd Lyttelton
Senior Girls: 1st Housman Hall; 2nd Hazeldene; 3rd Thomas Cookes
Rugby 7s
The 1st team retained the Shakespeare 7’s trophy hosted by King Edwards Stratford. The boys were undefeated in their group, going on to beat Solihull in the semi-final and saving their best performance of the day for the final beating King Worcester 32-10.
Review
Geography
Plenty of academic extension work last week, with U6th Geographers attending the Changing Places field day in Birmingham, where they were treated to a lively walking tour by Professor Carl Chinn, the oracle on all things to do with Birmingham and the author of numerous books on the real Peaky Blinders.
History
Meanwhile, Sixth Form history classes attended a series of lectures by prominent historians on the rise and fall of the Nazis, allowing them differing insights and providing extra emphasis to their classroom studies.
Chemistry
While in the Sciences, Gleb Lagelskii, Nurmash Tokmukhamedov, Yolanda Mao and Jake Wingfield took part in the WMCTC Chemistry quiz, finishing 4th in the region after narrowly missing out on third place.
Debating
The Bromsgrove Debating team of Scarlett Bond, Catherina Dahmen, Mary Kuvaeva, and Justus Krauel competed in the regional finals of the Oxford University Schools’ Debating Competition. Congratulations to Scarlett and Mary, who will now represent the Midlands in the national finals this weekend.
Badminton
Good results from the Senior Badminton teams who won a triangular tournament beating Stowe School and Wellingborough.
Basketball
The Senior Boys beat Haybridge High School 72-49.
Cross Country
Our cross country runners produced some impressive performances in the East Midlands League match at Oakham School.
Football
And in Football, there were good games on Saturday afternoon against Bristol Grammar School, with the 1st and 2nd teams drawing 2-2 and a good win for the U16As 5-1. The U16Bs drew 1-1 against Abingdon.
Hockey
Good news too from the hockey astros. The U16As are through to the quarter finals of the national cup after a 4-1 win over Cheltenham College, continuing their undefeated record so far this season and the 1st team played well to beat Prior Park 2-1, also in the national cup. Good wins for our teams in the Oakham fixture too.
Netball
The U15A and B Netball teams secured victories in midweek matches against Princethorpe College and most of our teams won their Oakham School fixtures.
Table Tennis
Unfortunately, a loss our table tennis teams in a very competitive fixture against Prince Henry’s.
Tennis
However, a good win for our Senior Girls Tennis team, beating RGS Worcester 10-2 in the Glanville Cup.
Volleyball
And finally, the volleyball squad played a series of training matches against South Bromsgrove, with our pupils not only playing, but also helping to coach some of the opposition.
Preview
OB Katie Palmer Reid, who is in her second year of Law at the University of Liverpool, will be coming to speak about her experience of being a first year Law student. Katie is planning to go to China for her third year of study and will be happy to talk about study abroad options that are possible in conjunction with your degree. The session will provide information about law that you would not necessarily be able to find out by just researching a university online. Please email Miss Leech for a seat at 1.20pm on Tuesday 10th March.
The Choral Evensong Service for Fifth and Sixth Form takes place during activities on Wednesday.
The Monitors, Leavers and Survivors photographs will take place on Thursday – details will have been sent to Houses.
Thursday evening sees the annual Senior House Drama Competition. You are all invited to attend what is always a highly enjoyable evening and a chance to appreciate the talent and imagination of over 80 senior pupils. Every House has entered and there will be a variety of short plays; some tragic, some hilarious, and all guaranteed to entertain. Nowhere else are you going to see “Oedipus Rex” and “The Comedy About A Robbery” in the same performance. The adjudicator is an award-winning actor from television, Hollywood, the RSC, West End, as well as being guest director at Guildhall School of Drama.
The evening starts promptly at 7pm in the Cobham Theatre and will finish just after 9pm. Please ensure you have a ticket reserved via the School online box office, but there will be limited seats available on the door.
This Friday’s lunchtime debate takes place at 1:20 in Dr Whitbread’s classroom and the motion will be:
‘This house believes feminism is causing more harm than good’; please email Scarlett Bond to participate.
The English Department has announced the theme of this year’s Staff Reading Prize is ‘New Beginnings’. Junior Competition open to all in the Fourth Form and the Senior for Fifth and Sixth Forms. Entrants must choose one extract of fictional prose of around 500 words in length and one poem inspired by the theme of New Beginnings. You are not expected to have learned the poem by heart for the heats but be prepared to do so if you make the final. Heats on Tuesday, Thursday and Friday this week from 1.25 in H8. Any questions to your English teacher or contact Mr Unterhalter.
Finally, we look forward to celebrating the Cultures Connect concert in Routh Hall on Saturday evening.